Q2 '21 - Return to Normal or a new normal for independent Grocers?

Brad Zenger

​Pivotal Tools Marketing Guy who loves food and wants to see Independent Grocers Win!

 Our Q2 survey of selected Independent Grocer Customers shows some interesting trends:

• Sales: Q2 '21 sales overall were down compared to Q2 '20, the first real quarter of pandemic lockdowns, but up (average of 4%) compared to Q2 '19.
• Customer Trips:  Up significantly (19%) relative to 2020, but still down (-26%) relative to 2019.
• Customer Baskets: Remain significantly higher than historical norms, down 22% compared to 2020, but up 40% relative to 2019.

So the question remains, what's the new normal?  Will customer trips and basket size return to historical norms as represented by 2019?

What is clear is that shoppers are showing an increasing preference, or more appropriately a return to their previous preferences, for foods prepared by their local Independent Grocer.  Service Deli and Bakery departments are showing significant increases relative to 2020, up 44% and 11% respectively.

Service Deli/Prepared Foods remains significantly below 2019 levels both in absolute Sales ($'s) as well as share of basket; indicating significant sales increases in these key categories in the months to come.

Another key indicator, Top Items, reinforces this opportunity:

Prepared Food items represented nearly 5 out of their Top 10 items at the store level of our surveyed Grocers.  In 2020, there was only 1 Service Deli/Prepared Food item in their Top 10.  Now in Q2 '21, there were still only 2 Prepared Food items in the Top 10.

Selected Statistics

                                                                                 2019                   2020                     2021

Q2 Sales/Week/Store                                        $650,000              $727,000            $675,000
Q2 Basket                                                               $32                        $58                     $45
Service Deli Weekly Sales                              $110,000               $68,000                $94,000
Service Deli Items in Store Top 10                  5/10                        1/10                    2/10
Service Deli Share of Basket                              17%                       9%                      14%

All of this points to an incredible opportunity for Independent Grocers to maintain those elevated baskets, provoked by the pandemic.  One way to do that clearly is by offering even more creative, compelling prepared foods offerings that entice customers to stay at their local Independent Grocer for those meals they don't want to prepare themselves!